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Global warming is an 'inconvenient truth'

Community Commentary

June 14, 2006|By Steve Mills

I haven't seen the film "An Inconvenient Truth," but I have problems with Jeff Klemzak's review of the documentary ("Hot topic leaves you cold," June 3, Reel Critic).

I am a scientist working on a climatology satellite, so I do know something about this subject. In the film, former vice president Al Gore refers to 900 peer-reviewed scientific papers that he says reached 100% agreement that carbon dioxide causes global warming, and Klemzak says, "It is difficult to believe that lock-step unanimity exists in the scientific community."

Actually, it has been known for more than a century that carbon dioxide leads to global warming. There is, however, no agreement on the magnitude of the effect, and if Gore implies such, he is misleading. Where there is disagreement is whether global warming since the Industrial Revolution, and especially its accelerated increase over the last few decades, is mostly due to mankind or to natural climatic cycles. Klemzak wonders whether the authors of the 900 papers were students or not, implying that the accuracy may be questionable. Having written some peer-reviewed papers, I can enlighten him about what "peer-reviewed" means. Most peer-reviewed papers have at least one doctoral author. The peer-review committee members are virtually all PhDs. If a student (usually a graduate student) is the primary author, they will almost always include their professor as co-author, since without that, the paper does not have a very good chance of being accepted.

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Many global-warming predictions involve computer models, and these have improved over the years. Some of the most cataclysmic predictions have been shown to be in error, but also those who dismiss global warming as natural rather than man-made are no longer considered credible.

Klemzak cites the period between the ninth and 14th centuries when the climate in Europe was warmer and crops were plentiful, (I'm not sure, then, why this period is called the Dark Ages), but regardless, this was an example of continental warming, not global warming. Global warming may, in fact, improve crops in Northern Europe and Siberia, but it will also cause more severe weather in the tropics, including droughts and hurricanes. This imbalance could then lead to social upheaval and war. One does not have to be an environmentalist to be concerned about the effects of global warming.

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